Weighted Regression-Based Extremum Response Surface Method for Structural Dynamic Fuzzy Reliability Analysis

Cheng Lu, Yun-Wen Feng and Cheng-Wei Fei
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Cheng Lu: School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China
Yun-Wen Feng: School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, China
Cheng-Wei Fei: Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 9, 1-16

Abstract: The parameters considered in structural dynamic reliability analysis have strong uncertainties during machinery operation, and affect analytical precision and efficiency. To improve structural dynamic fuzzy reliability analysis, we propose the weighted regression-based extremum response surface method (WR-ERSM) based on extremum response surface method (ERSM) and weighted regression (WR), by considering the randomness of design parameters and the fuzziness of the safety criterion. Therein, we utilize the ERSM to process the transient to improve computational efficiency, by transforming the random process of structural output response into a random variable. We employ the WR to find the efficient samples with larger weights to improve the calculative accuracy. The fuzziness of the safety criterion is regarded to improve computational precision in the WR-ERSM. The WR-ERSM is applied to perform the dynamic fuzzy reliability analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with the fluid-structure coupling technique, and is verified by the comparison of the Monte Carlo (MC) method, equivalent stochastic transformation method (ESTM) and ERSM, with the emphasis on model-fitting property and simulation performance. As revealed from this investigation, (1) the ERSM has the capacity of processing the transient of the structural dynamic reliability evaluation, and (2) the WR approach is able to improve modeling accuracy, and (3) regarding the fuzzy safety criterion is promising to improve the precision of structural dynamic fuzzy reliability evaluation, and (4) the change rule of turbine blisk structural stress from start to cruise for the aircraft is acquired with the maximum value of structural stress at t = 165 s and the reliability degree ( Pr = 0.997) of turbine blisk. The proposed WR-ERSM can improve the efficiency and precision of structural dynamic reliability analysis. Therefore, the efforts of this study provide a promising method for structural dynamic reliability evaluation with respect to working processes.

Keywords: dynamic fuzzy reliability analysis; extremum surface response method; weighted regression; turbine blisk; fuzzy safety criterion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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