A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS

Ajay Gambhir, Isabela Butnar, Pei-Hao Li, Pete Smith and Neil Strachan
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Ajay Gambhir: Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington SW7 2AZ, UK
Isabela Butnar: Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Pei-Hao Li: Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK
Pete Smith: Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, 23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, UK
Neil Strachan: Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK

Energies, 2019, vol. 12, issue 9, 1-21

Abstract: This paper reviews the many criticisms that Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)—the bedrock of mitigation analysis—have received in recent years. Critics have asserted that there is a lack of transparency around model structures and input assumptions, a lack of credibility in those input assumptions that are made visible, an over-reliance on particular technologies and an inadequate representation of real-world policies and processes such as innovation and behaviour change. The paper then reviews the proposals and actions that follow from these criticisms, which fall into three broad categories: scrap the models and use other techniques to set out low-carbon futures; transform them by improving their representation of real-world processes and their transparency; and supplement them with other models and approaches. The article considers the implications of each proposal, through the particular lens of how it would explore the role of a key low-carbon technology—bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), to produce net negative emissions. The paper concludes that IAMs remain critically important in mitigation pathways analysis, because they can encompass a large number of technologies and policies in a consistent framework, but that they should increasingly be supplemented with other models and analytical approaches.

Keywords: integrated assessment models; IAMs; climate change mitigation; BECCS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

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