Cleaner and Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: Lessons Learnt from the Pak-TIMES Model

Syed Aziz Ur Rehman, Yanpeng Cai, Zafar Ali Siyal, Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, Rizwan Fazal and Saif Ur Rehman Kashif
Additional contact information
Syed Aziz Ur Rehman: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore 54000, Punjab, Pakistan
Yanpeng Cai: State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Zafar Ali Siyal: Department of Energy and Environment Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah 67480, Sindh, Pakistan
Nayyar Hussain Mirjat: Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, Sindh, Pakistan
Rizwan Fazal: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Quaid-e-Azam University Campus, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Saif Ur Rehman Kashif: Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Lahore 54000, Punjab, Pakistan

Energies, 2019, vol. 13, issue 1, 1-21

Abstract: The energy planning process essentially requires addressing diverse planning objectives, including prioritizing resources, and the estimation of environmental emissions and associated health risks. This study investigates the impacts of atmospheric pollution for Pakistan from the energy production processes under various modalities. A national-scale bottom-up energy optimization model (Pak-TIMES) with the ANSWER-TIMES framework is developed to assess the electricity generation pathways (2015–2035) and estimate GHG emissions and major air pollutants, i.e., CH 4 , CO, CO 2 , N 2 O, NO X , PM 1 , PM 10 , PM 2.5 , PM BC , PM OC , PM TSP , SO 2 , and VOC under five scenarios. These scenarios are: BAU (business-as-usual), RE-30 (30% renewables), RE-40 (40% renewables), Coal-30 (30% coal), and Coal-40 (40% coal). It is revealed that to reach the electricity demand of 3091 PJ in 2035, both the Coal-30 and Coal-40 scenarios shall cause maximum emissions of GHGs, i.e., 260.13 and 338.92 Mt (million tons) alongside 40.52 and 54.03 Mt emissions of PM TSP in both of the scenarios, respectively. BAU scenario emissions are estimated to be 181.5 Mt (GHGs) and 24.30 Mt (PM TSP ). Minimum emissions are estimated in the RE-40 scenario with 96.01 Mt of GHGs and 11.80 Mt of PM TSP , followed by the RE-30 scenario (143.20 GHGs and 17.73 Mt PM TSP ). It is, therefore, concluded that coal-based electricity generation technologies would be a major source of emission and would contribute the highest amount of air pollution. This situation necessitates harnessing renewables in the future, which will significantly mitigate public health risks from atmospheric pollution.

Keywords: atmospheric pollution; energy; GHG emissions; Pakistan; Pak-TIMES (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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