Electricity Consumption Forecast Model Using Household Income: Case Study in Tanzania

Kyohei Shibano and Gento Mogi
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Kyohei Shibano: Department of Technology Management for Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
Gento Mogi: Department of Technology Management for Innovation, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-14

Abstract: When considering the electrification of a particular region in developing country, the electricity consumption in that region must be estimated. In sub-Saharan Africa, which is one of the areas with the lowest electrification rates in the world, the villages of minority groups are scattered over a vast area of land, so electrification using distributed generators is being actively studied. Specifically, constructing a microgrid or introducing a solar system to each household is being considered. In this case, the electricity consumption of each area needs to be estimated, then a system with enough capacity could be introduced. In this study, we propose a household income electricity consumption model to estimate the electricity consumption of a specific area. We first estimate the electricity consumption of each household based on income and the electricity consumption of a specific area can be derived by adding up them in that area. Through a case study in Tanzania, electricity consumption derived using this model was compared with electricity consumption published by TANESCO, and the validity of the model was verified. We forecasted the electricity consumption in each region using the household income electricity consumption model, and the average forecast accuracy was 74%. The accuracy was 87% when the electricity consumption in Tanzania mainland was forecasted by adding the predicted values.

Keywords: electricity consumption forecast; household electricity consumption; electrification; Tanzania (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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