Fuzzy First-Order Transition-Rules-Trained Hybrid Forecasting System for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasts

Yulong Bai, Lihong Tang, Manhong Fan, Xiaoyan Ma and Yang Yang
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Yulong Bai: College of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Lihong Tang: College of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Manhong Fan: College of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Xiaoyan Ma: College of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Yang Yang: College of Physics and Electrical Engineering, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 13, 1-21

Abstract: Due to the ever-increasing environmental pollution becoming progressively more serious, wind power has been widely used around the world in recent years. However, because of their randomness and intermittence, the accurate prediction of wind speeds is difficult. To address this problem, this article proposes a hybrid system for short-wind-speed prediction. The system combines the autoregressive differential moving average (ARIMA) model with a three-layer feedforward neural network. An ARIMA model was employed to predict linear patterns in series, while a feedforward neural network was used to predict the nonlinear patterns in series. To improve accuracy of the predictions, the neural network models were trained by using two methods: first-order transition rules and fuzzy first-order transition rules. The Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm was applied to update the weight and deviation of each layer of neural network. The dominance matrix method was employed to calculate the weight of the hybrid system, which was used to establish the linear hybrid system. To evaluate the performance, three statistical indices were used: the mean square error (MSE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). A set of Lorenz-63 simulated values and two datasets collected from different wind fields in Qilian County, Qinghai Province, China, were utilized as to perform a comparative study. The results show the following: (a) compared with the neural network trained by first-order transition rules, the prediction accuracy of the neural network trained by the fuzzy first-order transition rules was higher; (b) the proposed hybrid system attains superior performance compared with a single model; and (c) the proposed hybrid system balances the forecast accuracy and convergence speed simultaneously during forecasting. Therefore, it was feasible to apply the hybrid model to the prediction of real time-series.

Keywords: wind speed forecasting; auto regressive integrated moving averaged (ARIMA); first-order transition rules (FOTR); fuzzy first-order transition rules (FFOTR); hybrid system (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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