Enabling Methodologies for Predictive Power System Resilience Analysis in the Presence of Extreme Wind Gusts

Ennio Brugnetti, Guido Coletta, Fabrizio De Caro, Alfredo Vaccaro and Domenico Villacci
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Ennio Brugnetti: Department of Engineering (DING), University of Sannio, 82100 Benevento, Italy
Guido Coletta: Department of Engineering (DING), University of Sannio, 82100 Benevento, Italy
Fabrizio De Caro: Department of Engineering (DING), University of Sannio, 82100 Benevento, Italy
Alfredo Vaccaro: Department of Engineering (DING), University of Sannio, 82100 Benevento, Italy
Domenico Villacci: Department of Engineering (DING), University of Sannio, 82100 Benevento, Italy

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 13, 1-18

Abstract: Modern power system operation should comply with strictly reliability and security constraints, which aim at guarantee the correct system operation also in the presence of severe internal and external disturbances. Amongst the possible phenomena perturbing correct system operation, the predictive assessment of the impacts induced by extreme weather events has been considered as one of the most critical issues to address, since they can induce multiple, and large-scale system contingencies. In this context, the development of new computing paradigms for resilience analysis has been recognized as a very promising research direction. To address this issue, this paper proposes two methodologies, which are based on Time Varying Markov Chain and Dynamic Bayesian Network, for assessing the system resilience against extreme wind gusts. The main difference between the proposed methodologies and the traditional solution techniques is the improved capability in modelling the occurrence of multiple component faults and repairing, which cannot be neglected in the presence of extreme events, as experienced worldwide by several Transmission System Operators. Several cases studies and benchmark comparisons are presented and discussed in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in the task of assessing the power system resilience in realistic operation scenarios.

Keywords: power systems resilience; dynamic Bayesian network; Markov model; probabilistic modeling; smart grid; resilience models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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