From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study

Richard Perez, Marc Perez, James Schlemmer, John Dise, Thomas E. Hoff, Agata Swierc, Patrick Keelin, Marco Pierro and Cristina Cornaro
Additional contact information
Richard Perez: ASRC, University at Albany, 151 Fuller Rd., Albany, NY 12203, USA
Marc Perez: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
James Schlemmer: ASRC, University at Albany, 151 Fuller Rd., Albany, NY 12203, USA
John Dise: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Thomas E. Hoff: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Agata Swierc: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Patrick Keelin: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Marco Pierro: Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome, Tor Vergata, via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy
Cristina Cornaro: Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome, Tor Vergata, via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 17, 1-33

Abstract: We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.

Keywords: firm power generation; energy storage; irradiance forecasts; implicit storage; grid integration; ultra-high RE penetration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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