The Role of Electrification in the Decarbonization of Central-Western Europe

Gauthier de Maere d’Aertrycke, Yves Smeers, Hugues de Peufeilhoux and Pierre-Laurent Lucille
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Gauthier de Maere d’Aertrycke: ENGIE Impact, Boulevard Simon Bolivar 34-36, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Yves Smeers: CORE and Louvain School of Engineering, Université catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
Hugues de Peufeilhoux: ENGIE, Strategy Division, 1 Place Samuel de Champlain, 92400 Courbevoie, France
Pierre-Laurent Lucille: ENGIE, Strategy Division, 1 Place Samuel de Champlain, 92400 Courbevoie, France

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 18, 1-20

Abstract: Scenario studies of energy transition generally point to the central role of electricity. This notion is ambiguous as its interpretation can range from an electricity-only policy to portfolios of different energy vectors with a dominance of electricity. This ambiguity adds to the uncertainty that already pervades today’s investment environment. This paper examines the centrality of electricity through a so-called “variational scenario” analysis with policies obtained by a mix of electricity-only and green gas penetration while maintaining constant decarbonization objectives. Electricity is a complex product that can only be further complicated by the high penetration of renewables and its interaction with the production and use of synthetic fuels. The variational scenario analysis is conducted with sufficiently fine (hourly) granularity to produce an adequate representation of these phenomena. It shows that tilting the central role of electricity to a mix of electricity and green gas offers several advantages in terms of efficiency, flexibility of investment strategies, and robustness with respect to major uncertainties. It shows that the variational scenario analysis can be extended to more complex mixes of policies.

Keywords: energy transition; scenario quantification; linear programming; net zero carbon emissions; electrification; green gases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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