Scenario Analysis for GHG Emission Reduction Potential of the Building Sector for New City in South Korea

Seo-Hoon Kim, SungJin Lee, Seol-Yee Han and Jong-Hun Kim
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Seo-Hoon Kim: Energy ICT Convergence Research Department, Korea Institute of Energy Research, 152, Gajeong-ro Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34129, Korea
SungJin Lee: Energy ICT Convergence Research Department, Korea Institute of Energy Research, 152, Gajeong-ro Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34129, Korea
Seol-Yee Han: Energy ICT Convergence Research Department, Korea Institute of Energy Research, 152, Gajeong-ro Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34129, Korea
Jong-Hun Kim: Energy ICT Convergence Research Department, Korea Institute of Energy Research, 152, Gajeong-ro Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34129, Korea

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 20, 1-19

Abstract: A new government report on climate change shows that global emissions of greenhouse gases have increased to very high levels despite various policies to reduce climate change. Building energy accounts for 40% of the world’s energy consumption and accounts for 33% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. This study applied the LEAP (Long-range energy alternatives planning) model and Bass diffusion method for predicting the total energy consumption and GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions from the residential and commercial building sector of Sejong City in South Korea. Then, using the Bass diffusion model, three scenarios were analyzed (REST: Renewable energy supply target, BES: Building energy saving, BEP: Building energy policy) for GHG reduction. The GHG emissions for Sejong City for 2015–2030 were analyzed, and the past and future GHG emissions of the city were predicted in a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. In the REST scenario, the GHG emissions would attain a 24.5% reduction and, in the BES scenario, the GHG emissions would attain 12.81% reduction by 2030. Finally, the BEP scenario shows the potential for a 19.81% GHG reduction. These results could be used to guide the planning and development of the new city.

Keywords: greenhouse gas (GHG); CO 2 emission; long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP); renewable energy supply target; building energy saving; building energy policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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