From Niche to Market—An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Economic Uptake of Electro-Fuels (Power-to-Fuel) in the German Energy System

Christian Schnuelle, Kasper Kisjes, Torben Stuehrmann, Pablo Thier, Igor Nikolic, Arnim von Gleich and Stefan Goessling-Reisemann
Additional contact information
Christian Schnuelle: Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany
Kasper Kisjes: Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Grote Kruisstraat 2/1, 9712 TS Groningen, The Netherlands
Torben Stuehrmann: Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany
Pablo Thier: Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany
Igor Nikolic: Department of Multi-Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands
Arnim von Gleich: Department of Technology Development and Design, University of Bremen, Badgasteiner Str. 1, 28359 Bremen, Germany
Stefan Goessling-Reisemann: Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 20, 1-24

Abstract: The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, because their ad hoc electrification and decarbonization seem to be unfeasible. Power-to-fuel (P2F) technologies may contribute to bridge the gap, as renewable energy can be transferred into hydrogen and hydrocarbon-based synthetic fuels. However, the renewable fuels production is far from economically competitive with conventional fuels. With a newly developed agent-based model, potential developments in the German energy markets were simulated for a horizon of 20 years from 2016 to 2035. The model was constructed through a participatory modeling process with relevant actors and stakeholders in the field. Model findings suggest that adjusted regulatory framework conditions (e.g., exemptions from electricity surtaxes, accurate prices for CO 2 -certificates, strong start-up subsidies, and drastic emission reduction quotas) are key factors for economically feasible P2F installations and will contribute to its large-scale integration into the German energy system. While plant capacities do not exceed 0.042 GW in a business-as-usual scenarios, the above-mentioned adjustments lead to plant capacities of at least 3.25 GW in 2035 with concurrent reduction in product prices.

Keywords: power-to-fuel; power-to-gas; power-to-liquid; agent-based modeling; synthetic fuels; Energiewende; Germany’s energy transition; European Union emission trading system (EU ETS); Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) Umlage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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