Evaluating the Causal Relations between the Kaya Identity Index and ODIAC-Based Fossil Fuel CO 2 Flux

YoungSeok Hwang, Jung-Sup Um, JunHwa Hwang and Stephan Schlüter
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YoungSeok Hwang: Department of Climate Change, Kyungpook National University, 80 University Road, Buk-gu, Daegu 41566, Korea
Jung-Sup Um: Department of Geography, Kyungpook National University, 80 University Road, Buk-gu, Daegu 41566, Korea
JunHwa Hwang: Department of Climate Change, Kyungpook National University, 80 University Road, Buk-gu, Daegu 41566, Korea
Stephan Schlüter: Department of Mathematics, Natural and Economic Sciences, Ulm University of Applied Sciences, 89075 Ulm, Germany

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 22, 1-20

Abstract: The Kaya identity is a powerful index displaying the influence of individual carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sources on CO 2 emissions. The sources are disaggregated into representative factors such as population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity of the GDP, and carbon footprint of energy. However, the Kaya identity has limitations as it is merely an accounting equation and does not allow for an examination of the hidden causalities among the factors. Analyzing the causal relationships between the individual Kaya identity factors and their respective subcomponents is necessary to identify the real and relevant drivers of CO 2 emissions. In this study we evaluated these causal relationships by conducting a parallel multiple mediation analysis, whereby we used the fossil fuel CO 2 flux based on the Open-Source Data Inventory of Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (ODIAC). We found out that the indirect effects from the decomposed variables on the CO 2 flux are significant. However, the Kaya identity factors show neither strong nor even significant mediating effects. This demonstrates that the influence individual Kaya identity factors have on CO 2 directly emitted to the atmosphere is not primarily due to changes in their input factors, namely the decomposed variables.

Keywords: ODIAC; GOSAT; CO 2 flux; mediator analysis; Kaya identity; causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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