A Review on Deep Learning Models for Forecasting Time Series Data of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power

Rial A. Rajagukguk, Raden A. A. Ramadhan and Hyun-Jin Lee
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Rial A. Rajagukguk: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02727, Korea
Raden A. A. Ramadhan: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02727, Korea
Hyun-Jin Lee: Department of Mechanical Engineering, Kookmin University, 77 Jeongneung-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02727, Korea

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 24, 1-23

Abstract: Presently, deep learning models are an alternative solution for predicting solar energy because of their accuracy. The present study reviews deep learning models for handling time-series data to predict solar irradiance and photovoltaic (PV) power. We selected three standalone models and one hybrid model for the discussion, namely, recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and convolutional neural network-LSTM (CNN–LSTM). The selected models were compared based on the accuracy, input data, forecasting horizon, type of season and weather, and training time. The performance analysis shows that these models have their strengths and limitations in different conditions. Generally, for standalone models, LSTM shows the best performance regarding the root-mean-square error evaluation metric (RMSE). On the other hand, the hybrid model (CNN–LSTM) outperforms the three standalone models, although it requires longer training data time. The most significant finding is that the deep learning models of interest are more suitable for predicting solar irradiance and PV power than other conventional machine learning models. Additionally, we recommend using the relative RMSE as the representative evaluation metric to facilitate accuracy comparison between studies.

Keywords: deep learning; time series data; solar irradiance; PV power; evaluation metric (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (39)

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