Using a System Dynamics Modelling Process to Determine the Impact of eCar, eBus and eTruck Market Penetration on Carbon Emissions in South Africa

Nalini Sooknanan Pillay, Alan Colin Brent, Josephine Kaviti Musango and Francois van Geems
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Nalini Sooknanan Pillay: Eskom SOC, Research Testing & Development, Cleveland 2022, South Africa
Alan Colin Brent: Department of Industrial Engineering, and the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa
Josephine Kaviti Musango: School of Public Leadership, and the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa
Francois van Geems: Eskom SOC, Research Testing & Development, Cleveland 2022, South Africa

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-18

Abstract: The complexities that are inherent in electricity value chains are non-linear in nature and they require unconventional modelling methods, such as system dynamics. This paper provides an overview of the system dynamics method applied for obtaining an understanding of the impact of electric-bus, -car, and -truck market penetration on carbon emissions in South Africa, through the development of the electric mobility simulator (eMobiSim). Two scenarios were tested. The World Reference scenario was based on a market penetration of 22% eCars, 19% eTrucks, and 80% eBuses and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) scenario was based on 2.38% eCars, 1.79% eTrucks, and 12% eBuses. The results indicate that the World Reference scenario is the most optimistic, with a 12.33% decrease in carbon emissions in the transport sector and an increase of 4.32% in the electricity sector. However, if the economic structure that is specific to South Africa is to be considered and the GDP scenario is run, then there would only be a 1.77% decrease of carbon emissions in the transport sector and an increase of 0.64% in the electricity sector. Although the eCar market penetration produces the highest reduction in carbon emissions, the volumes that are required are large and other factors, such as price parity and affordability in the various income deciles, would have to be considered in determining whether this volume is achievable.

Keywords: electric vehicle penetration; battery storage; carbon emission (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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