Development of Scenarios for a Multi-Model System Analysis Based on the Example of a Cellular Energy System

Matthias Kühnbach, Felix Guthoff, Anke Bekk and Ludger Eltrop
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Matthias Kühnbach: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
Felix Guthoff: Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use (IER), University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstrasse 49a, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
Anke Bekk: Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
Ludger Eltrop: Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use (IER), University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstrasse 49a, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 4, 1-23

Abstract: Scenario analysis combined with system and market modelling is a well-established method to evaluate technological and societal developments and their impacts on future energy pathways. This paper presents a process-oriented method for developing consistent energy scenarios using multiple energy system models. Its added value is that the developed energy scenarios are consistent in a multi-model environment and practicable for a broader target group from scientists to practitioners. The scenarios consist of comprehensive storylines and systematically defined quantitative parameters. Following a step-by-step process, a condensed set of overlapping descriptors is generated and used to define the scenarios in a consistent parameter matrix. The set of descriptors allow consistent and comparable outputs independent of model-specific characteristics. The corresponding quantitative parameters can be used by diverse energy system tools. Using multiple models, a team of researchers can explore questions from differing points of view. In an example study, we apply the method to develop scenarios in the context of a cellular energy system. This approach enables the development of scenarios that provide a consistent basis for both stakeholder discourse and multi-model system analysis.

Keywords: scenario development; multi-model analysis; cellular energy systems; energy system modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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