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Quantifying Electricity Supply Resilience of Countries with Robust Efficiency Analysis

Patrick Gasser (), Marco Cinelli (), Anna Labijak (), Matteo Spada (), Peter Burgherr (), Miłosz Kadziński () and Božidar Stojadinović ()
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Patrick Gasser: Future Resilient Systems (FRS), Singapore-ETH Centre (SEC), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zürich, Singapore 138602, Singapore
Marco Cinelli: Future Resilient Systems (FRS), Singapore-ETH Centre (SEC), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zürich, Singapore 138602, Singapore
Anna Labijak: Institute of Computing Science, Poznań University of Technology (PUT), 60-965 Poznań, Poland
Matteo Spada: Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis (LEA), Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), 5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland
Peter Burgherr: Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis (LEA), Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), 5232 Villigen PSI, Switzerland
Miłosz Kadziński: Institute of Computing Science, Poznań University of Technology (PUT), 60-965 Poznań, Poland
Božidar Stojadinović: Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, Institute of Structural Engineering, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zürich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 7, 1-35

Abstract: The interest in studying energy systems’ resilience is increasing due to a rising awareness of the importance of having a secure energy supply. This growing trend is a result of a series of recent disruptions, among others also affecting electricity systems. Therefore, it is of crucial importance for policymakers to determine whether their country has a resilient electricity supply. Starting from a set of 12 indicators, this paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to comprehensively evaluate the electricity supply resilience of 140 countries worldwide. Two DEA models are applied: (1) the original ratio-based Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR) model and (2) a novel hybrid framework for robust efficiency analysis incorporating linear programming and Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that the CCR model deems 31 countries as efficient and hence lacks the capability to differentiate them. Furthermore, the CCR model considers only the best weight vectors for each country, which are not necessarily representative of the overall performance of the countries. The robustness analysis explores these limitations and identifies South Korea, Singapore and Canada as the most resilient countries. Finally, country analyses are conducted, where Singapore’s and Japan’s performances and improvement potentials are discussed.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis; electricity supply; resilience; energy security; ratio-based efficiency model; robustness analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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