Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon

José D. Morcillo, Fabiola Angulo and Carlos J. Franco
Additional contact information
José D. Morcillo: Facultad de Ingeniería y Tecnologías, Universidad de Monterrey, Monterrey 66238, Mexico
Fabiola Angulo: Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Electrónica y Computación, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales, Manizales 170003, Colombia
Carlos J. Franco: Facultad de Minas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellín, Medellín 050041, Colombia

Energies, 2020, vol. 13, issue 9, 1-25

Abstract: In this paper, the variations in hydropower generation are addressed considering the seasonality and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) episodes. The dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structure of the Colombian electricity market were analyzed. Moreover, its dynamic behavior was analyzed by using Dynamic Systems tools aimed at providing deep insight into the system. The MATLAB/Simulink model was used to evaluate the Colombian electricity market. Since we combine System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems, this methodology provides a novel insight and a deeper analysis compared with System Dynamics models and can be easily implemented by policymakers to suggest improvements in regulation or market structures. We also provide a detailed description of the Colombian electricity market dynamics under a broad range of demand growth rate scenarios inspired by the bifurcation and control theory of Dynamic Systems.

Keywords: system dynamics; dynamic systems; bifurcations; hydroelectricity variability; ENSO phenomenon (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/9/2381/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/9/2381/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:9:p:2381-:d:356014

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().