Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Analysis for Induced Seismicity: The Case of St Gallen (Switzerland), Geothermal Field

Vincenzo Convertito, Hossein Ebrahimian, Ortensia Amoroso, Fatemeh Jalayer, Raffaella De Matteis and Paolo Capuano
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Vincenzo Convertito: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia—Osservatorio Vesuviano, 80124 Napoli, Italy
Hossein Ebrahimian: Department of Structures for Engineering and Architecture (DIST), University of Naples Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italy
Ortensia Amoroso: Dipartimento di Fisica “E. R. Caianiello”, Università di Salerno, 84084 Fisciano, Italy
Fatemeh Jalayer: Department of Structures for Engineering and Architecture (DIST), University of Naples Federico II, via Claudio 21, 80125 Naples, Italy
Raffaella De Matteis: Dipartimento di Scienze e Tecnologie, Università degli Studi del Sannio, 82100 Benevento, Italy
Paolo Capuano: Dipartimento di Fisica “E. R. Caianiello”, Università di Salerno, 84084 Fisciano, Italy

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 10, 1-17

Abstract: Reliable seismic hazard analyses are crucial to mitigate seismic risk. When dealing with induced seismicity the standard Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has to be modified because of the peculiar characteristics of the induced events. In particular, the relative shallow depths, small magnitude, a correlation with field operations, and eventually non-Poisson recurrence time. In addition to the well-known problem of estimating the maximum expected magnitude, it is important to take into account how the industrial field operations affect the temporal and spatial distribution of the earthquakes. In fact, during specific stages of the project the seismicity may be hard to be modelled as a Poisson process—as usually done in the standard PSHA—and can cluster near the well or migrate toward hazardous known or—even worse—not known faults. Here we present a technique in which we modify the standard PSHA to compute time-dependent seismic hazard. The technique allows using non-Poisson models (BPT, Weibull, gamma and ETAS) whose parameters are fitted using the seismicity record during distinct stages of the field operations. As a test case, the procedure has been implemented by using data recorded at St. Gallen deep geothermal field, Switzerland, during fluid injection. The results suggest that seismic hazard analyses, using appropriate recurrence model, ground motion predictive equations, and maximum magnitude allow the expected ground-motion to be reliably predicted in the study area. The predictions can support site managers to decide how to proceed with the project avoiding adverse consequences.

Keywords: seismic hazard analysis; induced seismicity; non-Poisson model; ETAS model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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