Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (1) Estimation of the Potential in Ungaged Basins

Sungeun Jung, Younghye Bae, Jongsung Kim, Hongjun Joo, Hung Soo Kim and Jaewon Jung
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Sungeun Jung: Division of Computer Science and Engineering, Sahmyook University, Seoul 01795, Korea
Younghye Bae: Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 22212, Korea
Jongsung Kim: Department of Civil Engineering, Inha University, Incheon 22212, Korea
Hongjun Joo: Construction Technology Safety Department, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Ilsan 10223, Korea
Hung Soo Kim: Construction Technology Safety Department, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology, Ilsan 10223, Korea
Jaewon Jung: Institute of Water Resources System, Inha University, Incheon 22212, Korea

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 11, 1-20

Abstract: Small hydropower (SHP) plants are advantageous as they have a short construction period and can be easily maintained. They also have a higher energy density than other alternative energy sources as environmentally-friendly energy sources. In general, hydropower potential is estimated based on the discharge in the river basin, and the discharge can be obtained from the stage station in the gaged basin. However, if there is no station (i.e., ungaged basin) or no sufficient discharge data, the discharge should be estimated based on rainfall data. The flow duration characteristic model is the most widely used method for the estimation of mean annual discharge because of its simplicity and it consists of rainfall, basin area, and runoff coefficient. Due to the characteristics of hydroelectric power depending on the discharge, there is a limit to guaranteeing the accuracy of estimating the generated power with only one method of the flow duration characteristic model. Therefore, this study assumes the gaged basins of the three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon in Korea exist as ungaged basins and the river discharges were simulated using the Kajiyama formula, modified-TPM(Two-Parameter Monthly) model, and Tank model for a comparison with the flow duration characteristics model. Furthermore, to minimize the uncertainty of the simulated discharge, four blending techniques of simple average method, MMSE(Multi-Model Super Ensemble), SMA(Simple Model Average), and MSE(Mean Square Error) were applied. As for the results, the obtained discharges from the four models were compared with the observed discharge and we noted that the discharges by the Kajiyama formula and modified-TPM model were better fitted with the observations than the discharge by the flow duration characteristics model. However, the result by the Tank model was not well fitted with the observation. Additionally, when we investigated the four blending techniques, we concluded that the MSE technique was the most appropriate for the discharge simulation of the ungaged basin. This study proposed a methodology to estimate power generation potential more accurately by applying discharge simulation models that have not been previously applied to the estimation of SHP potential and blending techniques were also used to minimize the uncertainty of the simulated discharge. The methodology proposed in this study is expected to be applicable for the estimation of SHP potential in ungaged basins.

Keywords: hydropower; generation potential; modified-TPM; blending technique (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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