Availability and LCOE Analysis Considering Failure Rate and Downtime for Onshore Wind Turbines in Japan

Yuka Kikuchi and Takeshi Ishihara
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Yuka Kikuchi: Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
Takeshi Ishihara: Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 12, 1-17

Abstract: In this study, the availability and the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) are investigated considering failure rate and downtime for onshore wind turbines in Japan. The failure mode effect analysis is conducted using the wind turbine failure database collected by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Department Organization (NEDO). The normalized failure rate and downtime between Europe and Japan are comparable. The occurrence rate is similar between Europe and Japan, but the downtime in Japan is much longer than that of Europe. Three cost-reduction scenarios are then proposed to improve availability and to reduce LCOE using assumed failure rate and downtime in each mode based on the industry interview and best practices in Japan. The availability is improved from 87.4% for the baseline scenario to 92.7%, 95.5% and 96.4% for the three scenarios, and LCOE is also reduced from 13.7 Yen/kWh to 11.9, 11.0 and 10.7 Yen/kWh. Finally, the probability distributions of downtime and repair cost are obtained for each failure mode. It is found that the probability distributions of the failure modes with the shortest downtime show similar probability distributions regardless of the size of the assembly. The effects of downtime and repair-cost uncertainties on LCOE are also evaluated.

Keywords: availability; levelized cost of energy; failure mode effect analysis; failure rate; downtime (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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