Modeling of Persistence, Non-Acceptance and Sufficiency in Long-Term Energy Scenarios for Germany

Christoph Kost, Julian Brandes, Charlotte Senkpiel, Philip Sterchele, Daniel Wrede and Hans-Martin Henning
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Christoph Kost: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Heidenhofstraße 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
Julian Brandes: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Heidenhofstraße 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
Charlotte Senkpiel: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Heidenhofstraße 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
Philip Sterchele: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Heidenhofstraße 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
Daniel Wrede: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Heidenhofstraße 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany
Hans-Martin Henning: Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Heidenhofstraße 2, 79110 Freiburg, Germany

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 15, 1-21

Abstract: Long-term transition pathways to a low-carbon energy system are analysed by applying the energy system model REMod. All in all, the paper contributes to the current research through an innovative scenario approach, using assumptions for societal trends and quantitative results for scenarios, analysing the paths towards climate neutrality and defossilization in 2050. In the case study of Germany, these trends and drivers influence the results and the technology composition in each consumption sector (buildings, transport, and industry). Across all scenarios, it can be observed that the electrification of all sectors is important for the defossilization of the energy system, as the direct use of electricity from renewable energy is more efficient than the consumption of carbon-neutral synthetic energy carriers. However, different consumer behavior (e.g., non-acceptance or resistance against specific technologies) influences not only the efficient use of (green) electricity, it also changes the optimal pathways of the transition to paths with greater efforts. One potential societal trend—sufficiency—could be an important cornerstone for reaching the targets, as the required expansion and exchange of technologies are lower and thus facilitate the transition.

Keywords: transition pathways; energy system modeling; societal trends (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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