Metamodeling and On-Line Clustering for Loss-of-Flow Accident Precursors Identification in a Superconducting Magnet Cryogenic Cooling Circuit

Vincenzo Destino, Nicola Pedroni, Roberto Bonifetto, Francesco Di Maio, Laura Savoldi and Enrico Zio
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Vincenzo Destino: Dipartimento Energia, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy
Nicola Pedroni: Dipartimento Energia, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy
Roberto Bonifetto: Dipartimento Energia, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy
Francesco Di Maio: Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano, Italy
Laura Savoldi: Dipartimento Energia, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy
Enrico Zio: Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano, Italy

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 17, 1-37

Abstract: In the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, plasma is magnetically confined with Superconductive Magnets (SMs) that must be maintained at the cryogenic temperature of 4.5 K by one or more Superconducting Magnet Cryogenic Cooling Circuits (SMCCC). To guarantee cooling, Loss-of-Flow Accidents (LOFAs) in the SMCCC are to be avoided. In this work, we develop a three-step methodology for the prompt detection of LOFA precursors (i.e., those combinations of component failures causing a LOFA). First, we randomly generate accident scenarios by Monte Carlo sampling of the failures of typical SMCCC components and simulate the corresponding transient system response by a deterministic thermal-hydraulic code. In this phase, we also employ quick-running Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD)-based Kriging metamodels, adaptively trained to reproduce the output of the long-running code, to decrease the computational time. Second, we group the generated scenarios by a Spectral Clustering (SC) employing the Fuzzy C-Means (FCM), in order to identify the main patterns of system evolution towards abnormal states (e.g., a LOFA). Third, we develop an On-line Supervised Spectral Clustering (OSSC) technique to associate time-varying parameters measured during plant functioning to one of the prototypical groups obtained, which may highlight the related LOFA precursors (in terms of SMCCC components failures). We apply the proposed technique to the simplified model of a cryogenic cooling circuit of a single module of the ITER Central Solenoid Magnet (CSM). The framework developed promptly detects 95% of LOFA events and around 80% of the related precursors.

Keywords: ITER Central Solenoid Magnet; cryogenic cooling circuit; Loss-of-Flow Accident; precursors; Spectral Clustering; adaptive Kriging meta-model; Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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