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Forecasting and Assessment of the Energy Security Risk in Fuzzy Environment

Paweł Ziemba, Aneta Becker and Jarosław Becker
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Paweł Ziemba: Institute of Management, University of Szczecin, Aleja Papieża Jana Pawła II 22A, 70-453 Szczecin, Poland
Aneta Becker: Faculty of Economics, West Pomeranian University of Technology, Janickiego 31, 71-210 Szczecin, Poland
Jarosław Becker: Faculty of Technology, The Jacob of Paradies University, Chopina 52, 66-400 Gorzów Wielkopolski, Poland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 18, 1-0

Abstract: Energy security is of key importance for states and international organizations. An important issue in energy security is the assessment of current and future energy security methods. While the assessment of the current methods is relatively easy, since it is based on recent information, the assessment of the future methods is burdened with uncertainty and is therefore much more difficult. Therefore, the aim of the article is to develop a new approach for assessing current and future energy security issues based on a complex security index, supported by the computationally transparent fuzzy multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. The use of the fuzzy MCDA methods allows one to capture the uncertainty of assessments and forecasts, and the forecasts themselves were based on the Holt’s method; the international energy security risk index (IESRI) was used as the source of the data to generate the forecasts. The research compared two data sources for forecasts (IESRI categories and metrics) and two methods of forecast fuzzification. As a result, the forecasted assessments and rankings of energy security for the 2020–2030 period were obtained. On the basis of these forecasts, general trends shaping energy security were also indicated.

Keywords: energy security; energy management; sustainable energy; time trends; forecasting; uncertainty analysis; fuzzy set; multi-criteria decision analysis; Holt’s method; international energy security risk index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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