Modeling Long-Term Electricity Generation Planning to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Nigeria

Juyoul Kim, Ahmed Abdel-Hameed, Soja Reuben Joseph, Hilali Hussein Ramadhan, Mercy Nandutu and Joung-Hyuk Hyun
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Juyoul Kim: Department of NPP Engineering, KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, 658-91 Haemaji-ro, Seosaeng-myeon, Ulju-gun, Ulsan 45014, Korea
Ahmed Abdel-Hameed: Department of NPP Engineering, KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, 658-91 Haemaji-ro, Seosaeng-myeon, Ulju-gun, Ulsan 45014, Korea
Soja Reuben Joseph: Department of NPP Engineering, KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, 658-91 Haemaji-ro, Seosaeng-myeon, Ulju-gun, Ulsan 45014, Korea
Hilali Hussein Ramadhan: Department of NPP Engineering, KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, 658-91 Haemaji-ro, Seosaeng-myeon, Ulju-gun, Ulsan 45014, Korea
Mercy Nandutu: Department of NPP Engineering, KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, 658-91 Haemaji-ro, Seosaeng-myeon, Ulju-gun, Ulsan 45014, Korea
Joung-Hyuk Hyun: Department of NPP Engineering, KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, 658-91 Haemaji-ro, Seosaeng-myeon, Ulju-gun, Ulsan 45014, Korea

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 19, 1-17

Abstract: The most recent assessments conducted by the International Energy Agency indicate that natural gas accounts for the majority of Nigeria’s fossil fuel-derived electricity generation, with crude oil serving mostly as a backup source. Fossil fuel-generated electricity represents 80% of the country’s total. In addition, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in Nigeria in 2018 (101.3014 Mtons) demonstrated a 3.83% increase from 2017. The purpose of this study is to suggest an alternate energy supply mix to meet future electrical demand and reduce CO 2 emissions in Nigeria. The Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) was used in this study to model two case situations of the energy supply systems in Nigeria to determine the best energy supply technology to meet future demand. The Simplified Approach to Estimating Electricity Generation’s External Costs and Impacts (SIMPACTS) code is also used to estimate the environmental impacts and resulting damage costs during normal operation of various electricity generation technologies. Results of the first scenario show that gas and oil power plants are the optimal choice for Nigeria to meet future energy needs with no bound on CO 2 emission. If Nigeria adopts CO 2 emission restrictions to comply with the Paris Agreement’s target of decreasing worldwide mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C, the best option is nuclear power plants (NPPs). The MESSAGE results demonstrate that both fossil fuels and NPPs are the optimal electricity-generating technologies to meet Nigeria’s future energy demand. The SIMPACTS code results demonstrate that NPPs have the lowest damage costs because of their low environmental impact during normal operation. Therefore, NPP technology is the most environmentally friendly technology and the best choice for the optimization of future electrical technology to meet the demand. The result from this study will serve as a reference source in modeling long-term energy mix therefore reducing CO 2 emission in Nigeria.

Keywords: energy modeling; MESSAGE; SIMPACTS; CO 2 emission; Nigeria energy; environmental impact (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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