Improving Transport Modeling in MESSAGE Energy Planning Model: Vehicle Age Distributions

Eimantas Neniškis, Arvydas Galinis and Egidijus Norvaiša
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Eimantas Neniškis: Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania
Arvydas Galinis: Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania
Egidijus Norvaiša: Lithuanian Energy Institute, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas, Lithuania

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 21, 1-16

Abstract: In the European Green Deal, EU Commission has set a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector by 90% by 2050 compared to the 1990 level. Most likely, transport decarbonization will rely on a rapid expansion of electric and hydrogen vehicle fleet, which would seriously affect not just overall electricity demand, but also the shape of the electricity consumption curve. Consequently, our research focuses on integrated energy and transport modelling when analyzing its development pathways up to 2050 and beyond. This paper describes how already established transport modeling practices can be further improved by differentiating vehicles by age groups and setting vehicle age distributions to improve the representation of vehicle stock, fuel efficiencies and emissions, especially for countries that have non-declining vehicle age distributions. Modeling results using proposed and traditional approaches were compared for the Lithuanian case. It shows that the transport fuel shift using the proposed approach is more gradual than the traditional one. Diesel cars are phased out by 2050 versus 2040. Furthermore, the proposed approach provided more realistic CO 2 emissions, 7% lower emissions for 2018 than estimated based on statistical data, while traditional approach was 27% lower.

Keywords: energy planning; transport; model; vehicle; age distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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