Probabilistic Assessment and Uncertainty Analysis of CO 2 Storage Capacity of the Morrow B Sandstone—Farnsworth Field Unit

Jonathan Asante, William Ampomah, Dylan Rose-Coss, Martha Cather and Robert Balch
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Jonathan Asante: Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, New Mexico Tech Campus, Socorro, NM 87801, USA
William Ampomah: Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, New Mexico Tech Campus, Socorro, NM 87801, USA
Dylan Rose-Coss: New Mexico Oil Conservation Division, Santa Fe, NM 87801, USA
Martha Cather: Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, New Mexico Tech Campus, Socorro, NM 87801, USA
Robert Balch: Department of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum Engineering, New Mexico Tech Campus, Socorro, NM 87801, USA

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 22, 1-19

Abstract: This paper presents probabilistic methods to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) that can be stored in a mature oil reservoir and analyzes the uncertainties associated with the estimation. This work uses data from the Farnsworth Field Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas, which is currently undergoing a tertiary recovery process. The input parameters are determined from seismic, core, and fluid analyses. The results of the estimation of the CO 2 storage capacity of the reservoir are presented with both expectation curve and log probability plot. The expectation curve provides a range of possible outcomes such as the P90, P50, and P10. The deterministic value is calculated as the statistical mean of the storage capacity. The coefficient of variation and the uncertainty index, P10/P90, is used to analyze the overall uncertainty of the estimations. A relative impact plot is developed to analyze the sensitivity of the input parameters towards the total uncertainty and compared with Monte Carlo. In comparison to the Monte Carlo method, the results are practically the same. The probabilistic technique presented in this paper can be applied in different geological settings as well as other engineering applications.

Keywords: carbon dioxide storage; storage efficiency factor; probabilistic; expectation curve; Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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