An Empirical Study of Carbon Emission Impact Factors Based on the Vector Autoregression Model

Wei Fan, Xi Luo, Jiabei Yu and Yiyang Dai
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Wei Fan: Bureau of Economic Information and Science and Technology of Daying, Suining 629300, China
Xi Luo: School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
Jiabei Yu: School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
Yiyang Dai: School of Chemical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 22, 1-17

Abstract: It is important to effectively reduce carbon emissions and ensure the simultaneous adjustment of economic development and environmental protection. Therefore, we used Kaya identity to screen the factors influencing carbon emissions and conducted preliminary qualitative analyses, including grey relation analysis and linear regression analysis, on important variables to establish a vector autoregression (VAR) model based on their annual data to empirically analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions. The results showed that economic growth effect, energy intensity effect and embodied carbon in foreign trade were the key factors affecting carbon emissions, among which the economic growth effect contributed the most. Accordingly, we propose countermeasures including technological innovation to reduce energy intensity, the development of new energy sources to improve energy structure, acceleration of industrial structure transfer, and optimization of trade structure.

Keywords: carbon emissions; VAR model; economic; energy; foreign trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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