How Long Will Combustion Vehicles Be Used? Polish Transport Sector on the Pathway to Climate Neutrality

Wojciech Rabiega, Artur Gorzałczyński, Robert Jeszke, Paweł Mzyk and Krystian Szczepański
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Wojciech Rabiega: National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland
Artur Gorzałczyński: National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland
Robert Jeszke: National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland
Paweł Mzyk: National Centre for Emissions Management (KOBiZE), Chmielna 132/134, 00-805 Warsaw, Poland
Krystian Szczepański: Institute of Environmental Protection—National Research Institute (IEP-NRI), Krucza 5/11D, 00-548 Warsaw, Poland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 23, 1-19

Abstract: Transformation of road transport sector through replacing of internal combustion vehicles with zero-emission technologies is among key challenges to achievement of climate neutrality by 2050. In a constantly developing economy, the demand for transport services increases to ensure continuity in the supply chain and passenger mobility. Deployment of electric technologies in the road transport sector involves both businesses and households, its pace depends on the technological development of zero-emission vehicles, presence of necessary infrastructure and regulations on emission standards for new vehicles entering the market. Thus, this study attempts to estimate how long combustion vehicles will be in use and what the state of the fleet will be in 2050. For obtainment of results the TR 3 E partial equilibrium model was used. The study simulates the future fleet structure in passenger and freight transport. The results obtained for Poland for the climate neutrality (NEU) scenario show that in 2050 the share of vehicles using fossil fuels will be ca. 30% in both road passenger and freight transport. The consequence of shifts in the structure of the fleet is the reduction of CO 2 emissions ca. 80% by 2050 and increase of the transport demand for electricity and hydrogen.

Keywords: passenger transport; freight transport; electromobility; Electric Vehicle (EV); Fuel Cells Vehicle (FCEV); scrappage rate; CO 2 emissions; climate neutrality; partial equilibrium model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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