Isolated Areas Consumption Short-Term Forecasting Method

Guillaume Guerard, Hugo Pousseur and Ihab Taleb
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Guillaume Guerard: Research Center, Leonard de Vinci Pole Universitaire, 92916 Paris La Défense, France
Hugo Pousseur: Research Center, Leonard de Vinci Pole Universitaire, 92916 Paris La Défense, France
Ihab Taleb: Research Center, Leonard de Vinci Pole Universitaire, 92916 Paris La Défense, France

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 23, 1-23

Abstract: Forecasting consumption in isolated areas represents a challenging problem typically resolved using deep learning or huge mathematical models with various dimensions. Those models require expertise in metering and algorithms and the equipment needs to be frequently maintained. In the context of the MAESHA H2020 project, most of the consumers and producers are isolated. Forecasting becomes more difficult due to the lack of external data and the significant impact of human behaviors on those small systems. The proposed approach is based on data sequencing, sequential mining, and pattern mining to infer the results into a Hidden Markov Model. It only needs the consumption and production curve as a time series and adapts itself to provide the forecast. Our method gives a better forecast than other prediction machines and deep-learning methods used in literature review.

Keywords: time series; Hidden Markov Model; short-term forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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