Forecasting of Natural Gas Consumption in Poland Based on ARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Model

Anna Manowska, Aurelia Rybak, Artur Dylong and Joachim Pielot
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Anna Manowska: Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation in Industry, Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Aurelia Rybak: Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation in Industry, Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Artur Dylong: Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation in Industry, Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Joachim Pielot: Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation in Industry, Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 24, 1-14

Abstract: Natural gas is one of the main energy sources in Poland and accounts for about 15% of the primary energy consumed in the country. Poland covers only 1/5 of its demand from domestic deposits. The rest is imported from Russia, Germany, Norway, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and Central Asia. An important issue concerning the market of energy resources is the question of the direct impact of the prices of energy resources on the income of exporting and importing countries. It should also be remembered that unexpected and large fluctuations are detrimental to both exporters and importers of primary fuels. The article analyzes natural gas deposits in Poland, raw material trade and proposes a model for forecasting the volume of its consumption, which takes into account historical consumption, prices of energy resources and assumptions of Poland’s energy policy until 2040. A hybrid model was built by combining ARIMA with LSTM artificial neural networks. The validity of the constructed model was assessed using ME, MAE, RMSE and MSE. The average percentage error is 2%, which means that the model largely represents the real gas consumption course. The obtained forecasts indicate an increase in consumption by 2040.

Keywords: natural gas consumption; natural gas trade; energy markets; ARIMA; LSTM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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