Day-Ahead Electric Load Forecast for a Ghanaian Health Facility Using Different Algorithms

Samer Chaaraoui, Matthias Bebber, Stefanie Meilinger, Silvan Rummeny, Thorsten Schneiders, Windmanagda Sawadogo and Harald Kunstmann
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Samer Chaaraoui: International Centre for Sustainable Development (IZNE), University of Applied Sciences Bonn-Rhein-Sieg, 53757 Sankt Augustin, Germany
Matthias Bebber: International Centre for Sustainable Development (IZNE), University of Applied Sciences Bonn-Rhein-Sieg, 53757 Sankt Augustin, Germany
Stefanie Meilinger: International Centre for Sustainable Development (IZNE), University of Applied Sciences Bonn-Rhein-Sieg, 53757 Sankt Augustin, Germany
Silvan Rummeny: Cologne Institute for Renewable Energy (CIRE), University of Applied Sciences Cologne, 50679 Cologne, Germany
Thorsten Schneiders: Cologne Institute for Renewable Energy (CIRE), University of Applied Sciences Cologne, 50679 Cologne, Germany
Windmanagda Sawadogo: Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86159 Augsburg, Germany
Harald Kunstmann: Institute of Geography, University of Augsburg, 86159 Augsburg, Germany

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: Ghana suffers from frequent power outages, which can be compensated by off-grid energy solutions. Photovoltaic-hybrid systems become more and more important for rural electrification due to their potential to offer a clean and cost-effective energy supply. However, uncertainties related to the prediction of electrical loads and solar irradiance result in inefficient system control and can lead to an unstable electricity supply, which is vital for the high reliability required for applications within the health sector. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms present a viable option to tackle those uncertainties compared to rule-based methods, but strongly rely on the quality of the forecasts. This study tests and evaluates (a) a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) algorithm, (b) an incremental linear regression (ILR) algorithm, (c) a long short-term memory (LSTM) model, and (d) a customized statistical approach for electrical load forecasting on real load data of a Ghanaian health facility, considering initially limited knowledge of load and pattern changes through the implementation of incremental learning. The correlation of the electrical load with exogenous variables was determined to map out possible enhancements within the algorithms. Results show that all algorithms show high accuracies with a median normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <0.1 and differing robustness towards load-shifting events, gradients, and noise. While the SARIMA algorithm and the linear regression model show extreme error outliers of nRMSE >1, methods via the LSTM model and the customized statistical approaches perform better with a median nRMSE of 0.061 and stable error distribution with a maximum nRMSE of <0.255. The conclusion of this study is a favoring towards the LSTM model and the statistical approach, with regard to MPC applications within photovoltaic-hybrid system solutions in the Ghanaian health sector.

Keywords: West Africa; Ghanaian health sector; load forecasting; LSTM; neural network; SARIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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