Polish Energy Transition 2040: Energy Mix Optimization Using Grey Wolf Optimizer

Damian Hasterok, Rui Castro, Marcin Landrat, Krzysztof Pikoń, Markus Doepfert and Hugo Morais
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Damian Hasterok: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico-IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Rui Castro: INESC-ID, Department of electrical and computer engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico-IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Marcin Landrat: Department of Technologies and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Energy and Environmental Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Krzysztof Pikoń: Department of Technologies and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Energy and Environmental Engineering, Silesian University of Technology, 44-100 Gliwice, Poland
Markus Doepfert: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico-IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Hugo Morais: INESC-ID, Department of electrical and computer engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico-IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 2, 1-27

Abstract: Poland is facing demanding challenges to achieve a sustainable energy mix in the near future. Crucial and tough decisions must be made about the direction of the national energy economy, safety, and environmental impact. Considering the electricity and heating demand forecast, this paper proposes an optimization model based on the Grey Wolf Optimizer meta-heuristic to support the definition of ideal energy mix considering the investment and operational costs. The proposed methodology uses the present energy mix in Poland (the most recent values are from 2017) to calibrate the model implemented in the EnergyPLAN tool. Afterwards, EnergyPLAN relates to an optimization process allowing the identification of the most convenient energy mix in 2040 in Poland. The values obtained are compared with those proposed by Polish public entities showing advantage regarding the global costs of the project nevertheless respecting the same levels of CO 2 and the energy import and export balance. The expected savings can achieve 1.3 billion euros a year and more than 8 million tonnes of CO 2 emission reduction. Sensitivity analysis considering the decrease of the global cost of renewables-based sources is also presented.

Keywords: cost optimization energy efficiency; energy sources; energy transition; Grey Wolf Optimizer; Poland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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