Forecasting Models of Daily Energy Generation by PV Panels Using Fuzzy Logic

Grzegorz Dec, Grzegorz Drałus, Damian Mazur and Bogdan Kwiatkowski
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Grzegorz Dec: Department of Computer and Control Engineering, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rzeszow University of Technology, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland
Grzegorz Drałus: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Fundamentals, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rzeszow University of Technology, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland
Damian Mazur: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Fundamentals, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rzeszow University of Technology, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland
Bogdan Kwiatkowski: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Fundamentals, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Rzeszow University of Technology, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 6, 1-16

Abstract: This paper contains studies of daily energy production forecasting methods for photovoltaic solar panels (PV panel) by using mathematical methods and fuzzy logic models. Mathematical models are based on analytic equations that bind PV panel power with temperature and solar radiation. In models based on fuzzy logic, we use Adaptive-network-based Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) and the zero-order Takagi-Sugeno model (TS) with specially selected linear and non-linear membership functions. The use of mentioned membership functions causes that the TS system is equivalent to a polynomial and its properties can be compared to other analytical models of PV panels found in the literature. The developed models are based on data from a real system. The accuracy of developed prognostic models is compared, and a prototype software implementing the best-performing models is presented. The software is written for a generic programmable logic controller (PLC) compliant to the IEC 61131-3 standard.

Keywords: forecasting; solar PV system; fuzzy rules; ANFIS; mathematical models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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