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Grid Parity Analysis of China’s Centralized Photovoltaic Generation under Multiple Uncertainties

Libo Zhang (), Qian Du () and Dequn Zhou ()
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Libo Zhang: College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
Qian Du: College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
Dequn Zhou: College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 7, 1-19

Abstract: The cost of centralized photovoltaic (CPV) power generation has been decreasing rapidly in China. However, the achievement of grid parity is full of uncertainties due to changes in policies and the industry environment. In order to explore the time, price, and external conditions in which grid parity can be achieved, we create the improved grey GM (1, 1) model to estimate the installed capacity over the next 10 years, and apply a learning curve to predict the cost of CPV generation. In the analysis of grid parity, we compare the benchmark price of coal power and the price under the market-oriented mechanism with CPV. The results show that China’s CPV industry will enter the early stage of maturity from 2020 onwards; with the help of benchmark investment, the grid parity of CPV may be achieved in 2022 at the earliest and 2025 at the latest. After 2025, the photovoltaic electricity price will be generally lower than the coal electricity price under marketization. By 2030, CPV power generation costs will reach US $0.05/kWh, the accumulative installed capacity will exceed 370 GW, and the uncertainties will lead to a cumulative installed gap of nearly 100 GW.

Keywords: centralized photovoltaic; grid parity; learning curve; industry life cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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