Forecasting and Modelling the Uncertainty of Low Voltage Network Demand and the Effect of Renewable Energy Sources

Feras Alasali, Husam Foudeh, Esraa Mousa Ali, Khaled Nusair and William Holderbaum
Additional contact information
Feras Alasali: Department of Electrical Engineering, The Hashemite University, Zarqa 13113, Jordan
Husam Foudeh: School of Aerospace, Transport and Manufacturing, Cranfield University, Wharley End, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK
Esraa Mousa Ali: Department of Aircraft Maintenance, Amman Arab University, Amman 11953, Jordan
Khaled Nusair: Protection and Metering Department, National Electric Power Company, Amman 11181, Jordan
William Holderbaum: Aston Institute of Materials Research, Aston University, Birmingham B47ET, UK

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 8, 1-31

Abstract: More and more households are using renewable energy sources, and this will continue as the world moves towards a clean energy future and new patterns in demands for electricity. This creates significant novel challenges for Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) such as volatile net demand behavior and predicting Low Voltage (LV) demand. There is a lack of understanding of modern LV networks’ demand and renewable energy sources behavior. This article starts with an investigation into the unique characteristics of householder demand behavior in Jordan, connected to Photovoltaics (PV) systems. Previous studies have focused mostly on forecasting LV level demand without considering renewable energy sources, disaggregation demand and the weather conditions at the LV level. In this study, we provide detailed LV demand analysis and a variety of forecasting methods in terms of a probabilistic, new optimization learning algorithm called the Golden Ratio Optimization Method (GROM) for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model for rolling and point forecasting. Short-term forecasting models have been designed and developed to generate future scenarios for different disaggregation demand levels from households, small cities, net demands and PV system output. The results show that the volatile behavior of LV networks connected to the PV system creates substantial forecasting challenges. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the ANN-GROM model improved by 41.2% for household demand forecast compared to the traditional ANN model.

Keywords: load forecasting; LV network; PV system; ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables); ANN; rolling and point forecast; Jordan (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2151/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/8/2151/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:8:p:2151-:d:534714

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().