Mineral Policy within the Framework of Limited Critical Resources and a Green Energy Transition

Silviu Nate, Yuriy Bilan, Mariia Kurylo, Olena Lyashenko, Piotr Napieralski and Ganna Kharlamova
Additional contact information
Silviu Nate: Department of International Relations, Political Science and Security Studies, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, 550324 Sibiu, Romania
Yuriy Bilan: Faculty of Management, Rzeszów University of Technology, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland
Mariia Kurylo: Department of Mineral Deposits, Institute of Geology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 03022 Kyiv, Ukraine
Olena Lyashenko: Department of Economic Cybernetics, the Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 03022 Kyiv, Ukraine
Piotr Napieralski: Institute of Information Technology, Lodz University of Technology, Wólczańska 215, 90-924 Lodz, Poland

Energies, 2021, vol. 14, issue 9, 1-32

Abstract: The green energy transition is associated with the use of a wide range of metals and minerals that are exhaustible. Most of these minerals are limited in access due to small resource fields, their concentration in several locations and a broader scale of industry usage which is not limited exclusively to energy and environmental sectors. This article classifies 17 minerals that are critical in the green energy transition concerning the 10 main technologies. The following classification signs of metal resources were used: (1) the absolute amount of metals used in the current period for energy; (2) projected annual demand in 2050 from energy technologies as a percentage of the current rate; (3) the number of technologies where there is a need for an individual metal; (4) cumulative emissions of CO 2 , which are associated with metal production; (5) period of reserves availability; (6) the number of countries that produced more than 1% of global production; (7) countries with the maximum annual metal productivity. The ranking of metals according to these characteristics was carried out using two scenarios, and the index of the availability of each mineral was determined. The lowest availability index values (up to 0.15) were calculated for cobalt, graphite and lithium, which are key battery minerals for energy storage. Low indices (up to 0.20) were also obtained for iron, nickel and chromium. The calculation of the availability index for each mineral was enhanced with linear trend modelling and the fuzzy logic technique. There are two scenarios of demand–supply commodity systems with a pre-developed forecast up to 2050: basic independent parameter probability and balanced fuzzy sum. Both scenarios showed comparable results, but the second one highlighted supply chain importance. Generally, the lowest availability index values (up to 0.15) were calculated for cobalt, graphite and lithium, which are key battery minerals for energy storage. Low indices (up to 0.20) were also obtained for iron, nickel and chromium. The fuzzy logic model helped to reveal two scenarios up to 2050. The two scenarios presented in the current research expose a high level of uncertainty of the projected 2050 forecast.

Keywords: minerals; depletion; index of availability; fuzzy logic; linear trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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