Pragmatic Validation of Numerical Models Used for the Assessment of Radioactive Waste Repositories: A Perspective

Stefan Finsterle and Bill Lanyon
Additional contact information
Stefan Finsterle: Finsterle GeoConsulting, Kensington, CA 94708, USA
Bill Lanyon: Fracture Systems Ltd., St Ives TR26 1EQ, UK

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-16

Abstract: The safety case for a radioactive waste repository relies heavily on results obtained by numerical models that assess the long-term performance of the engineered and natural barrier systems. Given that important engineering and public policy decisions are based on these models, it is essential that we critically evaluate their abilities and limitations, and thus justify the level of confidence we have in the inferences drawn from the modeling. In this article, we discuss some of the issues surrounding the modeler’s attempts to test, corroborate, confirm, and verify numerical models—a process sometimes referred to as model validation. This wide-ranging topic is approached by first examining its deep roots in the philosophy of science and hypothesis testing. However, the application of these principles to radioactive waste isolation calls for a more pragmatic approach, which has the narrower goal of corroborating site-specific models and their usefulness for a specific purpose. We focus on the practical aspects of validating hydrogeological models that are used to understand the evolution of the repository system. We will make the case that the responsible use of numerical models requires a sufficient understanding of the quality and robustness of the simulation results, with direct implications for how these results need to be interpreted, and how they can (or cannot) be used in support of important policy decisions.

Keywords: pragmatic model validation; safety assessment; radioactive waste isolation; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/10/3585/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/10/3585/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:10:p:3585-:d:815149

Access Statistics for this article

Energies is currently edited by Ms. Agatha Cao

More articles in Energies from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().