How Does Oil Future Price Imply Bunker Price—Cointegration and Prediction Analysis

Yanhui Chen, Jinrong Lu and Mengmeng Ma
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Yanhui Chen: Department of International Trade and Finance, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201308, China
Jinrong Lu: Department of International Trade and Finance, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201308, China
Mengmeng Ma: Department of International Trade and Finance, Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201308, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-17

Abstract: This paper investigates how oil’s future price implies the bunker price through cointegration analysis first. A cointegration test confirms the long-run equilibrium condition of bunker and oil future prices. Based on the cointegration relationship, we construct VECM model to forecast bunker prices. In addition, we also consider ARMA, ARMAX, and VAR models for certifying whether considering the long-run equilibrium between bunker and oil future prices is helpful in prediction. One-step-ahead and four-step-ahead forecasting are considered and two out-of-sample datasets are used. The empirical results show that the increase in the value of the error correction term in the VECM model has the effect of pulling down the bunker return. VECM performs better than other models in prediction. The Crude Oil Future Contract 1 has better forecasting performance for bunker prices with VECM in the 1-step-ahead forecast, while Crude Oil Future Contract 3 performs slightly better than Crude Oil Future Contract 1 in the 4-step-ahead forecast.

Keywords: cointegration analysis; oil future price; bunker price; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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