Expectations for Coal Demand in Response to Evolving Carbon Policy and Climate Change Awareness

Horacio Andres Aguirre-Villegas and Craig H. Benson
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Horacio Andres Aguirre-Villegas: Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 460 Henry Mall, Madison, WI 53706, USA
Craig H. Benson: Geological Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1415 Engineering Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 10, 1-21

Abstract: Increasing awareness of climate change has induced demand for action most notably. As public demand for action on climate change increases, conversion to energy sources with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity will accelerate. Experience during the COVID-19 pandemic provided insight into how atmospheric conditions will respond to lower GHG emissions. A low-carbon future will require decarbonization of the energy supply mix for electrical production and industrial processes. Coal demand likely will decrease more rapidly than other fossil energy sources, replaced by natural gas and renewable energy sources that have lower GHG intensity and that will be available readily and economically. This decline will accelerate as China focuses on its carbon neutrality goals, the U.S. re-engages in the Paris Agreement, and India moves to a lower carbon future. However, perturbations in the decline will inevitably occur in response to global issues (e.g., pandemic, military conflict). Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies can reduce GHG emissions from coal as an energy source, but the capital and operation costs of CCUS remain high, which translates to slow commercial deployment. In this study, a literature review and interviews with industry experts and business leaders were conducted to understand the current and projected role of fossil fuels, primarily coal, in the global energy matrix; present their contributions to GHGs; analyze the effects of social expectations and climate policy on energy choices and coal demand; and describe the expected impacts on coal production for decades to come.

Keywords: coal; fossil fuels; greenhouse gas emissions; decarbonization; energy matrix; carbon capture and storage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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