Identification of Generators’ Economic Withholding Behavior Based on a SCAD-Logit Model in Electricity Spot Market

Bo Sun, Siyuan Cheng, Jingdong Xie and Xin Sun
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Bo Sun: College of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China
Siyuan Cheng: College of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China
Jingdong Xie: College of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China
Xin Sun: College of Economics and Management, Shanghai University of Electric Power, Shanghai 200090, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 11, 1-23

Abstract: The effective identification of the economic withholding behavior of the generators can help ensure the fair operation of the electricity market. A SCAD-logit model is proposed to improve the performance of the logit model for the massive data of electricity market. First, a social network analysis method is used to construct an equity relationship graph of the generators to obtain a set of key monitoring generators. An indicator system for identifying the economic withholding behavior of the generators is constructed based on structure conduct performance (SCP) theory. The indicators are screened by the smoothed clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty regression method to reduce the collinearity and improve identification efficiency. Then, a SCAD-logit model is established to identify the economic withholding of key monitoring generators, so that the boundary contributions of each indicator to the economic withholding behavior are obtained. The confusion matrix, ROC curve, and AUC values are used to evaluate the model’s performance. Finally, the model is applied to the electricity spot market, and the method can identify the generators that exercise economic withholding behavior with a correct rate of 96.83%. Indicators such as market share, quotation fluctuation degree, high quotation index, and volume price index can be used as important indicators for identifying the economic withholding behavior.

Keywords: electricity spot market; market power; economic withholding; social network analysis; logit discrete choice model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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