Numerical Simulation of Coastal Sub-Permafrost Gas Hydrate Formation in the Mackenzie Delta, Canadian Arctic

Zhen Li, Erik Spangenberg, Judith M. Schicks and Thomas Kempka
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Zhen Li: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Erik Spangenberg: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Judith M. Schicks: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Thomas Kempka: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-25

Abstract: The Mackenzie Delta (MD) is a permafrost-bearing region along the coasts of the Canadian Arctic which exhibits high sub-permafrost gas hydrate (GH) reserves. The GH occurring at the Mallik site in the MD is dominated by thermogenic methane (CH 4 ), which migrated from deep conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, very likely through the present fault systems. Therefore, it is assumed that fluid flow transports dissolved CH 4 upward and out of the deeper overpressurized reservoirs via the existing polygonal fault system and then forms the GH accumulations in the Kugmallit–Mackenzie Bay Sequences. We investigate the feasibility of this mechanism with a thermo–hydraulic–chemical numerical model, representing a cross section of the Mallik site. We present the first simulations that consider permafrost formation and thawing, as well as the formation of GH accumulations sourced from the upward migrating CH 4 -rich formation fluid. The simulation results show that temperature distribution, as well as the thickness and base of the ice-bearing permafrost are consistent with corresponding field observations. The primary driver for the spatial GH distribution is the permeability of the host sediments. Thus, the hypothesis on GH formation by dissolved CH 4 originating from deeper geological reservoirs is successfully validated. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the permafrost has been substantially heated to 0.8–1.3 °C, triggered by the global temperature increase of about 0.44 °C and further enhanced by the Arctic Amplification effect at the Mallik site from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s.

Keywords: gas hydrate; permafrost; methane; faults; climate change; Mallik; numerical simulations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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