PV Power Forecasting Based on Relevance Vector Machine with Sparrow Search Algorithm Considering Seasonal Distribution and Weather Type

Wentao Ma, Lihong Qiu, Fengyuan Sun, Sherif S. M. Ghoneim and Jiandong Duan
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Wentao Ma: School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
Lihong Qiu: School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China
Fengyuan Sun: Guangxi Wireless Broadband Communication and Signal Processing Key Laboratory, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin 541004, China
Sherif S. M. Ghoneim: Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia
Jiandong Duan: School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 14, 1-24

Abstract: Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is indispensable to enhancing the stability of the power grid and expanding the absorptive photoelectric capacity of the power grid. As an excellent nonlinear regression model, the relevance vector machine (RVM) can be employed to forecast PV power. However, the optimization of the free parameters is still a key problem for improving the performance of the RVM. Taking advantage of the strong global search capability, good stability, and fast convergence rate of the sparrow search algorithm (SSA), this paper optimizes the parameters of the RVM by using the SSA to develop an excellent RVM (called SSA-RVM). Consequently, a novel hybrid PV power forecasting model via the SSA-RVM is proposed to perform ultra-short-term (4 h ahead) prediction. In addition, the effects of seasonal distribution and weather type on PV power are fully considered, and different seasonal prediction models are established separately to improve the prediction capability. The benchmark is used to verify the accuracy of the SSA-RVM-based forecasting model under various conditions, and the experiment results demonstrate that the proposed SSA-RMV method outperforms the traditional RVM and support vector machine models, and it even shows a better prediction effect than the RVM models with other optimization approaches.

Keywords: PV power prediction; relevance vector machine; sparrow search algorithm; seasonal distribution and weather type (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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