Analysis of Influencing Factors of Thermal Coal Price

Shiqiu Zhu, Yuanying Chi, Kaiye Gao, Yahui Chen and Rui Peng
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Shiqiu Zhu: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Yuanying Chi: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Kaiye Gao: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Information Science & Technology University, Beijing 100192, China
Yahui Chen: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
Rui Peng: School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 15, 1-16

Abstract: As the world’s largest coal consumer, China’s coal consumption in 2021 was 2934.4 million tons of standard coal. Thermal coal occupies an important position in the coal market and industry system, as an important raw material in the power industry, steel industry and other industries. The price of thermal coal in 2021 was at its highest level in a decade, and reached a historical level of about 2587.5 yuan per ton in October 2021. In the same month, the government intervened in the thermal coal price, which fell 51.9% by the end of the year under the influence of the policy. In previous studies, there has been little research on thermal coal and the impact of the variable “policy” on the thermal coal price. Thus, this paper analyzed the factors that affect the price fluctuation of thermal coal, and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the thermal coal price. The cointegration test and forecast-error variance decomposition (FEVD) are adopted in this study. Our results show that the impact of policy uncertainty on the thermal coal price gradually increases over time, but the impact of policy uncertainty on price is negative and not as strong as expected. On the contrary, inventory and other energy prices have a greater positive impact on the price of thermal coal. The results of this study are of significance for the prediction of thermal coal prices in the future.

Keywords: thermal coal price; cointegration test; variance decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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