Evaluating China’s Role in Achieving the 1.5 °C Target of the Paris Agreement

Weiwei Xiong, Katsumasa Tanaka, Philippe Ciais and Liang Yan
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Weiwei Xiong: School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Katsumasa Tanaka: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Liang Yan: School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 16, 1-17

Abstract: Now that many countries have set goals for reaching net zero emissions by the middle of the century, it is important to clarify the role of each country in achieving the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Here, we evaluated China’s role by calculating the global temperature impacts caused by China’s emission pathways available in global emissions scenarios toward the 1.5 °C target. Our results show that China’s contribution to global warming in 2050 (since 2005) is 0.17 °C on average, with a range of 0.1 °C to 0.22 °C. The peak contributions of China vary from 0.1 °C to 0.23 °C, with the years reached distributing between 2036 and 2065. The large difference in peak temperatures arises from the differences in emission pathways of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ). We further analyzed the effect of the different mix of CO 2 and CH 4 mitigation trajectories in China’s pathways on the global mean temperature. We found that China’s near-term CH 4 mitigation reduces the peak temperature in the middle of the century, whereas it plays a less important role in determining the end-of-the-century temperature. Early CH 4 mitigation action in China is an effective way to shave the peak temperature, further contributing to reducing the temperature overshoot along the way toward the 1.5 °C target. This underscores the necessity for early CO 2 mitigation to ultimately achieve the long-term temperature goal.

Keywords: Paris Agreement; climate change mitigation; methane; China’s emissions; 1.5 °C target (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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