Third-Party Damage Model of a Natural Gas Pipeline Based on a Bayesian Network

Baikang Zhu, Xu Yang, Jun Wang, Chuanhui Shao, Fei Li, Bingyuan Hong (), Debin Song () and Jian Guo ()
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Baikang Zhu: National & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Harbor Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Technology, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Petrochemical Environmental Pollution Control, School of Petrochemical Engineering & Environment, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Xu Yang: School of Shipping and Maritime, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Jun Wang: School of Shipping and Maritime, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Chuanhui Shao: Zhejiang Zheneng Natural Gas Operation Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310052, China
Fei Li: Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Quzhou Petroleum Branch, Quzhou 324000, China
Bingyuan Hong: National & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Harbor Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Technology, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Petrochemical Environmental Pollution Control, School of Petrochemical Engineering & Environment, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Debin Song: National & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Harbor Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Technology, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Petrochemical Environmental Pollution Control, School of Petrochemical Engineering & Environment, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China
Jian Guo: National & Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Harbor Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Technology, Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Petrochemical Environmental Pollution Control, School of Petrochemical Engineering & Environment, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan 316022, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 16, 1-12

Abstract: Natural gas plays an important role in the transition from fossil fuels to new energy sources. With the expansion of pipeline networks, there are also problems with the safety of pipeline network operations in the process of transportation. Among them, third-party damage is a key factor affecting the safety of pipelines. In this paper, the risk factors of third-party damage are analyzed, and an evaluation model of natural gas pipeline damage is established using the GeNIe Modeler. Through Bayesian network reverse reasoning and a maximum cause chain analysis from the four aspects of personnel, environment, management, and equipment, it was found that the top five factors that have significant influence on third-party damage, are safety investment, the completeness of equipment, safety inspection frequency, the management of residents along the pipeline, and safety performance, with the posteriori probability in the model of 97.3%, 95.4%, 95.2%, 95.1%, 95.1%, respectively. Consequently, it is necessary for pipeline operation companies to secure investment on safety, to make sure that the safety equipment (system) works and is in a good condition, to maintain the safety inspection frequency in an organization, to build a management system for residents along the pipeline, and to conduct routine safety performance assessments accordingly.

Keywords: natural gas pipeline; Bayesian network; third-party damage; evaluation model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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