Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

Behnam Zakeri (), Katsia Paulavets, Leonardo Barreto-Gomez, Luis Gomez Echeverri, Shonali Pachauri, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Caroline Zimm, Joeri Rogelj, Felix Creutzig, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, David G. Victor, Morgan D. Bazilian, Steffen Fritz, Dolf Gielen, David L. McCollum, Leena Srivastava, Julian D. Hunt and Shaheen Pouya
Additional contact information
Behnam Zakeri: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Katsia Paulavets: International Science Council (ISC), 75116 Paris, France
Leonardo Barreto-Gomez: Austrian Energy Agency (AEA), 1150 Vienna, Austria
Luis Gomez Echeverri: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Shonali Pachauri: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Benigna Boza-Kiss: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Caroline Zimm: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Felix Creutzig: Sustainability Economics, Technische Universität Berlin, 10829 Berlin, Germany
Diana Ürge-Vorsatz: Center for Climate Change and Sustainable Energy Policy, Central European University, 1100 Vienna, Austria
David G. Victor: School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA 92093, USA
Morgan D. Bazilian: Payne Institute, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Steffen Fritz: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Dolf Gielen: IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre, 53113 Bonn, Germany
David L. McCollum: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Leena Srivastava: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Julian D. Hunt: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Shaheen Pouya: Industrial and Systems Engineering, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 17, 1-23

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

Keywords: global warming; energy policy; energy trade; renewable energy system models; international energy markets; decentralized energy storage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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