Solar Irradiance Ramp Forecasting Based on All-Sky Imagers

Stavros-Andreas Logothetis, Vasileios Salamalikis, Bijan Nouri, Jan Remund, Luis F. Zarzalejo, Yu Xie, Stefan Wilbert, Evangelos Ntavelis, Julien Nou, Niels Hendrikx, Lennard Visser, Manajit Sengupta, Mário Pó, Remi Chauvin, Stephane Grieu, Niklas Blum, Wilfried van Sark and Andreas Kazantzidis ()
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Stavros-Andreas Logothetis: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Physics Department, University of Patras, 26500 Patras, Greece
Vasileios Salamalikis: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Physics Department, University of Patras, 26500 Patras, Greece
Bijan Nouri: German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Solar Research, Paseo de Almería 73, 04001 Almería, Spain
Jan Remund: Meteotest, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
Luis F. Zarzalejo: CIEMAT Energy Department–Renewable Energy Division, Av. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid, Spain
Yu Xie: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1617 Cole Blvd, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Stefan Wilbert: German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Solar Research, Paseo de Almería 73, 04001 Almería, Spain
Evangelos Ntavelis: CSEM Center Alpnach, 6055 Alpnach Dorf, Switzerland
Julien Nou: PROMES-CNRS, Rambla de la Thermodynamique, 66100 Perpignan, France
Niels Hendrikx: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
Lennard Visser: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
Manajit Sengupta: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 1617 Cole Blvd, Golden, CO 80401, USA
Mário Pó: EKO INSTRUMENTS Europe B.V., 2521 AL Den Haag, The Netherlands
Remi Chauvin: PROMECA Ingénierie, 1 rue des Iles, 38420 Domène, France
Stephane Grieu: PROMES Laboratory of Processes, Materials and Solar Energy, Rambla de la Thermodynamique, Université de Perpignan, 66100 Perpignan, France
Niklas Blum: German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Solar Research, Paseo de Almería 73, 04001 Almería, Spain
Wilfried van Sark: Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands
Andreas Kazantzidis: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Physics Department, University of Patras, 26500 Patras, Greece

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 17, 1-17

Abstract: Solar forecasting constitutes a critical tool for operating, producing and storing generated power from solar farms. In the framework of the International Energy Agency’s Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, the solar irradiance nowcast algorithms, based on five all-sky imagers (ASIs), are used to investigate the feasibility of ASIs to foresee ramp events. ASIs 1–2 and ASIs 3–5 can capture the true ramp events by 26.0–51.0% and 49.0–92.0% of the cases, respectively. ASIs 1–2 provided the lowest (<10.0%) falsely documented ramp events while ASIs 3–5 recorded false ramp events up to 85.0%. On the other hand, ASIs 3–5 revealed the lowest falsely documented no ramp events (8.0–51.0%). ASIs 1–2 are developed to provide spatial solar irradiance forecasts and have been delimited only to a small area for the purposes of this benchmark, which penalizes these approaches. These findings show that ASI-based nowcasts could be considered as a valuable tool for predicting solar irradiance ramp events for a variety of solar energy technologies. The combination of physical and deep learning-based methods is identified as a potential approach to further improve the ramp event forecasts.

Keywords: all-sky imagers; solar irradiance ramp event forecasting; ramp events; forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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