Scenario Analysis of an Electric Power System in Colombia Considering the El Niño Phenomenon and the Inclusion of Renewable Energies

Juliana Restrepo-Trujillo, Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen, Francy N. Jiménez-García, Wilfredo C. Flores and Harold R. Chamorro
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Juliana Restrepo-Trujillo: Departamento de Física y Matemática, Universidad Autónoma de Manizales, Manizales 170002, Colombia
Ricardo Moreno-Chuquen: Departamento de Energética, Universidad Autónoma de Occidente, Cali 760043, Colombia
Francy N. Jiménez-García: Departamento de Física y Matemática, Universidad Autónoma de Manizales, Manizales 170002, Colombia
Wilfredo C. Flores: Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Tecnológica Centroamericana, UNITEC, Tegucigalpa 11101, Honduras
Harold R. Chamorro: Department of Electrical Engineering, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, 114 28 Stockholm, Sweden

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 18, 1-17

Abstract: This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for Colombia that consider the El Niño phenomenon and the inclusion of renewable energies in the energy generation matrix for the period 2020–2035. A comparative analysis is presented between the results of the different scenarios proposed. The most relevant finding is the use of the reserve margin as an indicator of system reliability. A scenario which included 7214 MW of large-scale non-conventional renewable energy, 10,000 MW of distributed generation, and 12,240 MW of hydroelectric power was assumed, with a reserve margin of over 50%. Additionally, it was found that for the scenarios in which a generation capacity with non-conventional renewable energies of less than 10,000 MW in 2034 was assumed, the reserve margin of the system in the seasons of the El Niño phenomenon will be less than historical records of the system. Alternatively, it was found that the scenarios in which the inclusion of at least 9600 MW of the electric power generation capacity of non-conventional renewable energies proposed by 2034 offer benefits in the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which contributes to the achievement of the emission reduction objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Keywords: El Niño phenomenon; vulnerability; scenario analysis; planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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