Reliability Evaluation of Standalone Microgrid Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Zhipeng Weng, Jinghua Zhou () and Zhengdong Zhan
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Zhipeng Weng: Inverter Technology Engineering Research Center of Beijing, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China
Jinghua Zhou: Inverter Technology Engineering Research Center of Beijing, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China
Zhengdong Zhan: Inverter Technology Engineering Research Center of Beijing, North China University of Technology, Beijing 100144, China

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 18, 1-20

Abstract: In order to analyze the influence of uncertainty and an operation strategy on the reliability of a standalone microgrid, a reliability evaluation method based on a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation was developed. Here, the duty cycles of a microturbine (MT), the stochastic performance of photovoltaics (PV), and wind turbine generators (WTG) were considered. Moreover, the time-varying load with random fluctuation was modeled. In this method, the available capacity of an energy storage system (ESS) was also comprehensively considered by the SMC simulation. Then, the reliability evaluation framework was established from the perspectives of probability, frequency, and duration, and reliability evaluation algorithms under different operation strategies were formulated. Lastly, the influence of WTG and PV penetration and equipment capacity on the reliability was evaluated in the test system. The results showed that the complementary characteristics of wind and solar and the enhancement of the equipment capacity can both improve the reliability; but, with the increase in the penetration rate of WTG and PV, more ESS capacity is needed to cope with the randomness of WTG and PV. In addition, load shedding minimization strategies can minimize the probability and the number of reductions and achieve optimal reliability, which can provide a reference for the formulation of microgrid operation strategies.

Keywords: microgrid; sequential Monte Carlo simulation; energy storage system; reliability evaluation; load shedding (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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