Economic Feasibility of Conventional and Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Implementation in Brazil

Gustavo Leite Gonçalves, Raphael Abrahão, Paulo Rotella Junior and Luiz Célio Souza Rocha
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Gustavo Leite Gonçalves: Alternative and Renewable Energies Centre, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Brazil
Raphael Abrahão: Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Federal University of Paraíba, João Pessoa 58051-900, Brazil
Luiz Célio Souza Rocha: Management Department, Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology—North of Minas Gerais, Almenara 39900-000, Brazil

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 18, 1-16

Abstract: Economic feasibility analysis is essential in the decision-making process regarding investment in photovoltaic projects. Project profitability must be measured based not only on the costs and revenues, but also on the climatic particularities of the different locations. Therefore, performing simulations of technical and economic performance of photovoltaic models is fundamental. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze deterministic and stochastic models of investments in two types of photovoltaic systems, one incorporated into the enterprise’s architecture (a BIPV system) and the other, a conventional one, in different Brazilian locations, covering the predominant climatic factors in the country. The methodological proposal consisted of choosing a city in Brazil with each predominant climate type and compiling its data on irradiation, monthly sunshine hours, and tariffs of the electric power concessionaire, to simulate the electrical generation performance of the proposed photovoltaic systems and their profitability. For the economic analysis, the cumulative probability of positive Net Present Value (NPV) returns was obtained through deterministic simulations in all municipalities. Only the municipality of Pau dos Ferros-RN was chosen to perform 10,000 stochastic simulations, and its cumulative probabilities of positive NPV returns were obtained. In both models of photovoltaic technology analyzed and simulation logics, 100% of the NPVs were positive, indicating profitable cash flows in all scenarios. However, some municipalities obtained better results than others when the climate types favored sunny weather. Moreover, although all cases returned positive NPVs, the conventional model proved to be more economically attractive than BIPV system.

Keywords: NPV; Monte Carlo simulation; discounted cash flow; climate types; solar energy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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