Scrutinizing the Intermittency of Renewable Energy in a Long-Term Planning Model via Combining Direct Integration and Soft-Linking Methods for Colombia’s Power System

Ahmed Younis (), René Benders, Jezabel Ramírez, Merlijn de Wolf and André Faaij
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Ahmed Younis: Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), University of Groningen, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
René Benders: Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), University of Groningen, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
Jezabel Ramírez: Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), University of Groningen, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
Merlijn de Wolf: Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), University of Groningen, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
André Faaij: Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), University of Groningen, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands

Energies, 2022, vol. 15, issue 20, 1-24

Abstract: The large-scale integration of variable renewable energy sources into the energy system presents techno–economic challenges. Long–term energy system optimization models fail to adequately capture these challenges because of the low temporal resolution of these tools. This limitation has often been addressed either by direct improvements within the long–term models or by coupling them to higher resolution power system models. In this study, a combined approach is proposed to capitalize on the advantages and overcome the disadvantages of both methods. First, the temporal resolution of an energy model was enhanced by approximating the joint probability of the electricity load and the supply of intermittent sources. Second, the projected electricity mix was simulated by a power model at an hourly resolution. This framework was used to analyze mid–century deep decarbonization trajectories for Colombia, subject to future uncertainties of hydroclimatic variability and the development of the bioeconomy. The direct integration method is found to consistently reduce the overestimation of the feasible penetration of VRES. However, its impact is marginal because of its inability to assess the short–term operation of the power system in detail. When combined with the soft–linking method, the reliable operation of the power system is shown to incur an additional overhead of 12–17% investment in flexible generation capacity, 2–5% of the annual energy system cost, and a 15–27% shortfall in achieving the aspired GHG mitigation target. The results obtained by combining both methods are found to be closer to the global optimum solution than using either of these methods individually.

Keywords: energy system optimization model (ESOM); variable renewable energy sources (VRES); temporal resolution; power system simulation; biomass; hydroclimatic variability; Colombia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q Q0 Q4 Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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